Bet with MINO CASINO →Lillestrøm are at home to Aalesund on 8 November 2026 · 16:00 at Åråsen Stadion (Kjeller). Our favourites are Lillestrøm (52%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lillestrøm are 5th with 42 points after 25 matches (13W 3D 9L), whereas Aalesund are 14th with 24 points (5W 9D 11L).
- Attack and defence. Lillestrøm have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Aalesund average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lillestrøm: 13W 3D 9L, goals 36–33; Aalesund: 5W 9D 11L, goals 43–57.
- Head to head. In their 12 meetings so far, Lillestrøm have 6 wins, Aalesund have 3 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–14.
What to expect
Lillestrøm should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.92), and our probability for it is 50%. We estimate both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 12; Lillestrøm 6 wins, 3 draws, Aalesund 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lillestrøm 36–33, Aalesund 43–57.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Absent: Lillestrøm 0, Aalesund 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, best available odds 1.94). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lillestrøm are missing: no absences. Aalesund are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.83 | 4.43 | 3.74 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 4.14 | 3.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.69 | 3.28 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.09 | 85.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.15 | 3.04 | 30.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.94 | 1.89 | 49.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 67.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:45. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lillestrøm 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lillestrøm 5th (42 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Lillestrøm 13W 3D 9L (36:33), Aalesund 5W 9D 11L (43:57).
- H2H: 12 matches: Lillestrøm 6W 3D 3L, goals 26–14.
- Absences: Lillestrøm 0, Aalesund 0.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: who is missing
Lillestrøm
- No reported absences
Aalesund
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 | Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Lillestrøm
Home and away
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LillestrømWWWDLAalesundLLWLWLillestrøm vs Aalesund: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lillestrøm vs Aalesund: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
Our result tip is Lillestrøm to win (odds 1.83), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.92). The safer pick is Lillestrøm or draw (1X).
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Aalesund?
Our probabilities: Lillestrøm to win 52%, a draw 22%, Aalesund to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 16:00, at Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller.
Who will be missing?
Lillestrøm: no absences. Aalesund: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 69% (odds 1.37); under 2.5 goals is at 31% (odds 3.15).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 68% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.2%); after that come 1–1 (8.7%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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