Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are at home to Aalesund on 25 October 2026 · 16:00 at Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsberg), with Mischa Kellerhals as the referee. Our favourites are Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.86 |
| Market average | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.93 | 48.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.89 | 32.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 12:04. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9th (31 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7W 7D 9L (28:34), Aalesund 5W 9D 9L (39:51).
- H2H: 12 matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9W 1D 2L, goals 27–13.
- Absences: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: who is missing
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- F. Carstenseninjury · will miss the match
- M. Opokuankle injury · will miss the match
Aalesund
- H. Hammerinjury · will miss the match
- S. Haramabsence · will miss the match
- M. Reedinjury · will miss the match
- P. Auklandinjury · doubtful
- A. Kjelseninjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Home and away
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th with 31 points after 25 matches (8W 7D 10L), whereas Aalesund are 14th with 24 points (5W 9D 11L).
- Attack and defence. Sarpsborg 08 FF have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Aalesund average 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sarpsborg 08 FF: 7W 7D 9L, goals 28–34; Aalesund: 5W 9D 9L, goals 39–51.
- Head to head. In their 12 meetings so far, Sarpsborg 08 FF have 9 wins, Aalesund have 2 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 27–13.
What to expect
Sarpsborg 08 FF should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 12; Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 wins, 1 draw, Aalesund 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28–34, Aalesund 39–51.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, best available odds 2.04). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF are missing: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund are without: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Sarpsborg 08 FFLWLWLAalesundLLWLWSarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our result tip is Sarpsborg 08 FF to win (odds 1.90), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87). The safer pick is Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw (1X).
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF to win 51%, a draw 23%, Aalesund to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:00, at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. Referee: Mischa Kellerhals.
Who will be missing?
Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.42); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 68% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.2%); after that come 1–1 (9.0%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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