Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
IF Elfsborg are at home to Malmö FF on 23 October 2026 · 18:00 at Borås Arena (Boras), with Granit Maqedonci, Sweden as the referee. Our favourites are IF Elfsborg (46%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, IF Elfsborg are 5th with 46 points after 27 matches (12W 10D 5L), whereas Malmö FF are 7th with 40 points (12W 4D 11L).
- Attack and defence. IF Elfsborg have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Malmö FF average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. IF Elfsborg: 11W 8D 5L, goals 37–24; Malmö FF: 11W 3D 10L, goals 38–34.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, IF Elfsborg have 5 wins, Malmö FF have 15 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 22–40.
What to expect
IF Elfsborg should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; IF Elfsborg 5 wins, 4 draws, Malmö FF 15 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: IF Elfsborg 37–24, Malmö FF 38–34.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: IF Elfsborg 3, Malmö FF 7.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
IF Elfsborg are missing: V. Elfstrom, L. Hagg, M. Rohden. Malmö FF are without: I. Assibu, K. Busuladzic, P. Jansson, N. John, W. Kamanzi, Y. Karabelyov, O. Sjostrand. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.07 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.69 | 3.32 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.28 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.19 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.66 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.57 | 58.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 23/10/26, 16:04. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: IF Elfsborg 1–1 Malmö FF, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: IF Elfsborg 5th (46 points), Malmö FF 7th (40 points).
- Form in the competition: IF Elfsborg 11W 8D 5L (37:24), Malmö FF 11W 3D 10L (38:34).
- H2H: 24 matches: IF Elfsborg 5W 4D 15L, goals 22–40.
- Absences: IF Elfsborg 3, Malmö FF 7.
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: who is missing
IF Elfsborg
- V. Elfstromnot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Haggnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Rohdenmuscle injury · will miss the match
Malmö FF
- I. Assibunot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Busuladzicinjury · will miss the match
- P. Janssonknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Johnnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Kamanzimuscle injury · will miss the match
- Y. Karabelyovnot in the squad · will miss the match
- O. Sjostrandknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hammarby FF | 27 | 17-4-6 | 56:22 | 55 |
| 2 |  Sirius | 26 | 17-4-5 | 56:34 | 55 |
| 3 |  Djurgårdens IF | 27 | 16-4-7 | 55:25 | 52 |
| 4 |  BK Häcken | 27 | 13-10-4 | 48:30 | 49 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 27 | 12-10-5 | 41:27 | 46 |
| 6 |  Västerås SK FK | 27 | 13-5-9 | 40:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Malmö FF | 27 | 12-4-11 | 42:36 | 40 |
| 8 |  AIK Stockholm | 27 | 10-8-9 | 43:47 | 38 |
| 9 |  IFK Göteborg | 27 | 10-8-9 | 36:46 | 38 |
| 10 |  Gais | 27 | 10-7-10 | 34:27 | 37 |
| 11 |  IF Brommapojkarna | 27 | 9-7-11 | 39:44 | 34 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 27 | 6-9-12 | 30:43 | 27 |
| 13 |  Kalmar FF | 27 | 6-5-16 | 23:42 | 23 |
| 14 |  Degerfors IF | 27 | 5-5-17 | 22:46 | 20 |
| 15 |  Örgryte IS | 27 | 4-7-16 | 33:60 | 19 |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 26 | 4-5-17 | 18:49 | 17 |
Recent matches
IF Elfsborg
Home and away
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
IF ElfsborgWDDDWMalmö FFLWDLWIF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: questions and answers
What is the best tip for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
Draw or Malmö FF (X2) (1.82); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
Our probabilities: IF Elfsborg to win 46%, a draw 25%, Malmö FF to win 28%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 October 2026, kick-off at 18:00, at Borås Arena, Boras. Referee: Granit Maqedonci, Sweden.
Who will be missing?
IF Elfsborg: V. Elfstrom, L. Hagg, M. Rohden. Malmö FF: I. Assibu, K. Busuladzic, P. Jansson, N. John, W. Kamanzi, Y. Karabelyov, O. Sjostrand. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.71); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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