Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen v Excelsior is on 16 October 2026 · 19:00 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen); Robin Hensgens, Netherlands takes charge. We think Heerenveen (60%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Heerenveen are 7th with 18 points after 11 matches (5W 3D 3L), whereas Excelsior are 15th with 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
What to expect
Heerenveen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.84), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.08). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Heerenveen are missing: no absences. Excelsior are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.56 | 4.44 | 5.20 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.08 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.37 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.94 | 2.86 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.60 | 35.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 16/10/26, 17:16. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Absences: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: who is missing
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Returns calculator
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our result tip is Heerenveen to win (odds 1.60), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.84). The safer pick is Heerenveen or draw (1X).
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our probabilities: Heerenveen to win 60%, a draw 21%, Excelsior to win 18%.
What time and where is kick-off?
16 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.43); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 2.94).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.6%); after that come 1–1 (8.6%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.