Bet with MINO CASINO →Benfica v Lech Poznań is on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon). We think Benfica (81%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.22 | 8.60 | 16.00 |
| Market average | 1.16 | 7.52 | 14.00 |
| Lowest odds | 1.13 | 6.72 | 11.08 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.08 | 86.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.31 | 71.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.26 | 28.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.80 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.90 | 49.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:31. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Benfica 2–0 Lech Poznań, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 1st (9 points), Lech Poznań 32nd (1 point).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (29:8), Lech Poznań 3W 2D 2L (16:11).
- H2H: 2 matches: Benfica 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Absences: Benfica 3, Lech Poznań 6.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: who is missing
Benfica
- L. Barreironot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Barrenecheainjury · will miss the match
- D. Lukebakioinjury · doubtful
Lech Poznań
- A. Douglasankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Gholizadehknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ishaknot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Monkainjury · will miss the match
- J. Moutinhonot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Sayyadmaneshgroin injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Benfica are 1st with 9 points after 3 matches (3W 0D 0L), whereas Lech Poznań are 32nd with 1 point (0W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Benfica have scored 3.2 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Lech Poznań average 2.3 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 29–8; Lech Poznań: 3W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, Benfica have 2 wins, Lech Poznań have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 8–2.
What to expect
Benfica should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–0 (10.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.22, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.92), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 2; Benfica 2 wins, 0 draws, Lech Poznań 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 5.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Benfica 29–8, Lech Poznań 16–11.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 71%.
- Absent: Benfica 3, Lech Poznań 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.91). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Benfica are missing: L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań are without: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWLech PoznańDLLBenfica vs Lech Poznań: head to head
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Benfica vs Lech Poznań: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Our result tip is Benfica to win (odds 1.22), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.92). The safer pick is Benfica or draw (1X).
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Our probabilities: Benfica to win 81%, a draw 13%, Lech Poznań to win 7%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 71% (odds 1.36); under 2.5 goals is at 29% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 2.00).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–0 (10.9%); after that come 3–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (8.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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