Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 5–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Vitória SC are at home to Marítimo on 23 October 2026 · 20:45 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães), with D. Rosa as the referee. Our favourites are Vitória SC (63%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Vitória SC are 13th with 9 points after 10 matches (2W 3D 5L), whereas Marítimo are 14th with 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Vitória SC have scored 0.6 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Marítimo average 1.1 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Vitória SC: 1W 2D 5L, goals 5–10; Marítimo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 9–14.
- Head to head. In their 27 meetings so far, Vitória SC have 15 wins, Marítimo have 8 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 34–26.
What to expect
Vitória SC should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (12.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.92), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 27; Vitória SC 15 wins, 4 draws, Marítimo 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Vitória SC 5–10, Marítimo 9–14.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Vitória SC are missing: no absences. Marítimo are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.56 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.18 | 6.45 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 1.26 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.84 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.95 | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.05 | 30.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 48.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 23/10/26, 18:18. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Vitória SC 1–0 Marítimo, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Vitória SC 13th (9 points), Marítimo 14th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Vitória SC 1W 2D 5L (5:10), Marítimo 2W 2D 4L (9:14).
- H2H: 27 matches: Vitória SC 15W 4D 8L, goals 34–26.
- Absences: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: who is missing
Vitória SC
- No reported absences
Marítimo
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Vitória SC
Home and away
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Vitória SCDWLDLMarítimoLLLDLVitória SC vs Marítimo: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Our result tip is Vitória SC to win (odds 1.56), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.92). The safer pick is Vitória SC or draw (1X).
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
Our probabilities: Vitória SC to win 63%, a draw 23%, Marítimo to win 15%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 October 2026, kick-off at 20:45, at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães. Referee: D. Rosa.
Who will be missing?
Vitória SC: no absences. Marítimo: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.92); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (12.8%); after that come 2–0 (12.1%) and 1–1 (10.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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