Bet with MINO CASINO →Union Berlin are at home to RB Leipzig on 21 November 2026 · 14:30 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin). Our favourites are RB Leipzig (55%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Union Berlin are 16th with 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L), whereas RB Leipzig are 4th with 15 points (5W 0D 3L).
What to expect
RB Leipzig should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Union Berlin 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 47%, best available odds 2.07). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Union Berlin are missing: no absences. RB Leipzig are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.41 | 4.57 | 1.76 |
| Market average | 4.18 | 4.31 | 1.72 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.09 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.39 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.92 | 32.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 2.03 | 47.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 65.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.73 | 2.69 | 34.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 17:11. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–2 RB Leipzig, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), RB Leipzig 4th (15 points).
- Absences: Union Berlin 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: who is missing
Union Berlin
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our result tip is RB Leipzig to win (odds 1.76), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88). The safer pick is Draw or RB Leipzig (X2).
Who will win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our probabilities: Union Berlin to win 23%, a draw 22%, RB Leipzig to win 55%.
What time and where is kick-off?
21 November 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.40); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.4%); after that come 1–1 (8.8%) and 0–2 (7.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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