Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln is on 1 November 2026 · 14:30 at An der Alten Försterei (Berlin); Richard Hempel takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.84 | 3.78 | 2.61 |
| Market average | 2.68 | 3.51 | 2.53 |
| Lowest odds | 2.54 | 3.32 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.72 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.14 | 44.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.73 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.56 | 59.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.30 | 40.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 13:44. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), 1. FC Köln 13th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Union Berlin 1W 3D 3L (6:18), 1. FC Köln 2W 2D 3L (8:11).
- H2H: 21 matches: Union Berlin 10W 4D 7L, goals 27–29.
- Absences: Union Berlin 5, 1. FC Köln 6.
Who will win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: who is missing
Union Berlin
- A. Ilicillness · will miss the match
- A. Markgrafknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Nsokimuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Skovinjury · will miss the match
- F. Uduokhaired card · will miss the match
1. FC Köln
- R. Achethigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Dallingaknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Hubersknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Rondicinjury · will miss the match
- E. Skhiriankle injury · will miss the match
- R. van den Bergmuscle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Union Berlin
Home and away
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Union Berlin are 16th with 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L), whereas 1. FC Köln are 13th with 9 points (2W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Union Berlin have scored 0.9 and conceded 2.6 goals per game on average in this competition; 1. FC Köln average 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Union Berlin: 1W 3D 3L, goals 6–18; 1. FC Köln: 2W 2D 3L, goals 8–11.
- Head to head. In their 21 meetings so far, Union Berlin have 10 wins, 1. FC Köln have 7 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 27–29.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 21; Union Berlin 10 wins, 4 draws, 1. FC Köln 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Union Berlin 6–18, 1. FC Köln 8–11.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Union Berlin 5, 1. FC Köln 6.
Alternative tip: Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2)
Alternative pick: Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2) (probability 65%, best available odds 1.52). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Union Berlin are missing: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, R. Skov, F. Uduokhai. 1. FC Köln are without: R. Ache, T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri, R. van den Berg. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Union BerlinDDDWL1. FC KölnDDLWLUnion Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: head to head
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Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our result tip is Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2) (odds 1.52), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48). The safer pick is Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2).
Who will win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our probabilities: Union Berlin to win 35%, a draw 27%, 1. FC Köln to win 37%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Referee: Richard Hempel.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, R. Skov, F. Uduokhai. 1. FC Köln: R. Ache, T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri, R. van den Berg. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.77); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.60).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.7%); after that come 1–2 (8.5%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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