Bet with MINO CASINO →FSV Mainz 05 are at home to Bayern München on 7 November 2026 · 14:30 at Mewa Arena (Mainz). Our favourites are Bayern München (67%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 6.68 | 6.57 | 1.45 |
| Market average | 5.74 | 5.70 | 1.41 |
| Lowest odds | 4.75 | 4.84 | 1.33 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 1.05 | 90.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.20 | 77.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.18 | 22.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.60 | 59.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.37 | 1.35 | 68.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.98 | 31.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points), Bayern München 1st (18 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 4L (17:17), Bayern München 5W 3D 0L (27:8).
- H2H: 34 matches: FSV Mainz 05 7W 3D 24L, goals 39–99.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 0, Bayern München 0.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: who is missing
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Bayern München
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 9th with 10 points after 8 matches (3W 1D 4L), whereas Bayern München are 1st with 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 2.1 and conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Bayern München average 3.4 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 4L, goals 17–17; Bayern München: 5W 3D 0L, goals 27–8.
- Head to head. In their 34 meetings so far, FSV Mainz 05 have 7 wins, Bayern München have 24 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 39–99.
What to expect
Bayern München should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–3, about 4 goals combined, and 1–2 (8.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.62), and our probability for it is 59%. We estimate both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 34; FSV Mainz 05 7 wins, 3 draws, Bayern München 24 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 4.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: FSV Mainz 05 17–17, Bayern München 27–8.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 78%.
- Absent: FSV Mainz 05 0, Bayern München 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 41%, best available odds 2.37). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FSV Mainz 05 are missing: no absences. Bayern München are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWBayern MünchenDWWDWFSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: head to head
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our result tip is Bayern München to win (odds 1.45), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.62). The safer pick is Draw or Bayern München (X2).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 to win 17%, a draw 17%, Bayern München to win 67%.
What time and where is kick-off?
7 November 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at Mewa Arena, Mainz.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Bayern München: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 78% (odds 1.24); under 2.5 goals is at 22% (odds 4.50).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 69% probability (odds 1.37).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (8.5%); after that come 1–3 (7.8%) and 0–2 (6.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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