Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 6–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayern München are at home to RB Leipzig on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), with Tobias Stieler, Germany as the referee. Our favourites are Bayern München (79%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bayern München are 1st with 18 points after 8 matches (5W 3D 0L), whereas RB Leipzig are 4th with 15 points (5W 0D 3L).
What to expect
Bayern München should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 3–1 (7.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.24, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: No to both teams scoring (odds 3.00), and our probability for it is 31%. We estimate both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 85%.
- Absent: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 31%, best available odds 3.00). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bayern München are missing: no absences. RB Leipzig are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.24 | 8.50 | 12.40 |
| Market average | 1.21 | 7.84 | 11.26 |
| Lowest odds | 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.03 | 1.03 | 94.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7.00 | 6.31 | 14.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.98 | 31.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 14:38. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), RB Leipzig 4th (15 points).
- Absences: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: who is missing
Bayern München
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern München -2 (Asian handicap) (1.70); No to both teams scoring (3.00).
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Our probabilities: Bayern München to win 79%, a draw 12%, RB Leipzig to win 9%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 85% (odds 1.12); under 2.5 goals is at 15% (odds 7.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 69% probability (odds 1.36).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 3–1 (7.7%); after that come 4–1 (6.8%) and 2–1 (6.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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