Bet with MINO CASINO →Sturm Graz meet Celje on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz). Sturm Graz (61%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sturm Graz are 19th with 4 points after 3 matches (1W 1D 1L), whereas Celje are 29th with 1 point (0W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Sturm Graz have scored 0.3 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Celje average 0.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sturm Graz: 1W 1D 1L, goals 1–3; Celje: 0W 1D 2L, goals 2–7.
What to expect
Sturm Graz should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 60%. We estimate both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sturm Graz 1–3, Celje 2–7.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Sturm Graz 10, Celje 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.61). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sturm Graz are missing: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper, S. Wlodarczyk. Celje are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.58 | 4.56 | 5.75 |
| Market average | 1.54 | 4.35 | 5.37 |
| Lowest odds | 1.48 | 3.98 | 5.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 1.57 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.39 | 39.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.37 | 39.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.16 | 43.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:31. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 2–1 Celje, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 19th (4 points), Celje 29th (1 point).
- Form in the competition: Sturm Graz 1W 1D 1L (1:3), Celje 0W 1D 2L (2:7).
- Absences: Sturm Graz 10, Celje 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sturm Graz vs Celje: who is missing
Sturm Graz
- N. Geyrhofernot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Grgicknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Jattashoulder injury · will miss the match
- D. Khudyakovnot in the squad · will miss the match
- O. Kiteishvilicalf injury · will miss the match
- G. Mamageishviliinjury · will miss the match
- F. Rozgamuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Soglomuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Weiperinjury · will miss the match
- S. Wlodarczyknot in the squad · will miss the match
Celje
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Celje: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sturm Graz
Home and away
Sturm Graz vs Celje: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Sturm GrazWLDCeljeDLLReturns calculator
Sturm Graz vs Celje: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our result tip is Sturm Graz to win (odds 1.58), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is Sturm Graz or draw (1X).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our probabilities: Sturm Graz to win 61%, a draw 22%, Celje to win 18%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper, S. Wlodarczyk. Celje: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.61); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 57% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.9%); after that come 1–1 (9.7%) and 2–0 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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