Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SC Freiburg v Bayern München is on 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Europa-Park-Stadion (Freiburg); Felix Zwayer takes charge. We think Bayern München (64%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.75 | 5.28 | 1.53 |
| Market average | 5.49 | 5.05 | 1.49 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.07 | 87.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.47 | 27.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.79 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.81 | 2.72 | 34.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:38. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern München, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SC Freiburg 3rd (16 points), Bayern München 1st (18 points).
- Form in the competition: SC Freiburg 4W 1D 1L (15:6), Bayern München 4W 2D 0L (22:5).
- H2H: 32 matches: SC Freiburg 2W 6D 24L, goals 27–85.
- Absences: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: who is missing
SC Freiburg
- Y. Engelhardtinjury · doubtful
- B. Yilmazabsence · doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- Kim Min-Jaeknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Kimmichabsence · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
- A. Pavloviccalf injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
SC Freiburg
Home and away
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, SC Freiburg are 3rd with 16 points after 8 matches (5W 1D 2L), whereas Bayern München are 1st with 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. SC Freiburg have scored 2.5 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Bayern München average 3.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. SC Freiburg: 4W 1D 1L, goals 15–6; Bayern München: 4W 2D 0L, goals 22–5.
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, SC Freiburg have 2 wins, Bayern München have 24 wins and 6 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 27–85.
What to expect
Bayern München should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.86), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; SC Freiburg 2 wins, 6 draws, Bayern München 24 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: SC Freiburg 15–6, Bayern München 22–5.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 73%.
- Absent: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 47%, best available odds 2.10). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
SC Freiburg are missing: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Bayern München are without: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SC FreiburgWLLWDBayern MünchenDWWDWSC Freiburg vs Bayern München: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: questions and answers
What is the best tip for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our result tip is Bayern München to win (odds 1.53), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.86). The safer pick is Draw or Bayern München (X2).
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our probabilities: SC Freiburg to win 17%, a draw 19%, Bayern München to win 64%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:30, at Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg. Referee: Felix Zwayer.
Who will be missing?
SC Freiburg: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 73% (odds 1.33); under 2.5 goals is at 27% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 66% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.2%); after that come 1–3 (7.7%) and 1–1 (7.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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