Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayern München meet Borussia Dortmund on 31 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), refereed by Tobias Stieler. Bayern München (72%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.35 | 6.40 | 8.96 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 6.02 | 8.16 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.32 | 6.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 1.07 | 88.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.90 | 3.63 | 26.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.49 | 62.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 14:09. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Bayern München 5W 2D 0L (25:6), Borussia Dortmund 5W 2D 0L (12:4).
- H2H: 50 matches: Bayern München 27W 10D 13L, goals 101–68.
- Absences: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: who is missing
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Canknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Konstanteliasknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Lermamuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Karetsasankle injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Bayern München
Home and away
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bayern München are 1st with 18 points after 8 matches (5W 3D 0L), whereas Borussia Dortmund are 2nd with 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Bayern München have scored 3.6 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Borussia Dortmund average 1.7 scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bayern München: 5W 2D 0L, goals 25–6; Borussia Dortmund: 5W 2D 0L, goals 12–4.
- Head to head. In their 50 meetings so far, Bayern München have 27 wins, Borussia Dortmund have 13 wins and 10 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 101–68.
What to expect
Bayern München should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–1 (8.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.53), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 50; Bayern München 27 wins, 10 draws, Borussia Dortmund 13 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Bayern München 25–6, Borussia Dortmund 12–4.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 74%.
- Absent: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.53). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bayern München are missing: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Borussia Dortmund are without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Bayern MünchenDWWDWBorussia DortmundDWDDWBayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: head to head
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Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our result tip is Bayern München to win (odds 1.35), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.53). The safer pick is Bayern München or draw (1X).
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our probabilities: Bayern München to win 72%, a draw 16%, Borussia Dortmund to win 12%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: Tobias Stieler.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 74% (odds 1.30); under 2.5 goals is at 26% (odds 3.90).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.53).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (8.9%); after that come 3–1 (8.1%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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