Bet with MINO CASINO →Girona meet Almería on 8 November 2026 · 15:15 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi (Girona). Girona (46%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Girona vs Almería: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Girona are 7th with 21 points after 12 matches (6W 3D 3L), whereas Almería are 2nd with 26 points (8W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Girona have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Almería average 1.9 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Girona: 6W 3D 3L, goals 22–11; Almería: 8W 2D 2L, goals 23–10.
- Head to head. In their 16 meetings so far, Girona have 7 wins, Almería have 4 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–17.
What to expect
Girona should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Almería are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 16; Girona 7 wins, 5 draws, Almería 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Girona 22–11, Almería 23–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: Girona 0, Almería 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Girona are missing: no absences. Almería are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Girona vs Almería: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.07 | 3.78 | 3.53 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.57 | 3.34 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.20 | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.69 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.14 | 44.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.67 | 35.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.25 | 41.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:45. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Girona 1–1 Almería, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Girona 7th (21 points), Almería 2nd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Girona 6W 3D 3L (22:11), Almería 8W 2D 2L (23:10).
- H2H: 16 matches: Girona 7W 5D 4L, goals 26–17.
- Absences: Girona 0, Almería 0.
Who will win Girona vs Almería?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Girona vs Almería: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Girona vs Almería: who is missing
Girona
- No reported absences
Almería
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Girona vs Almería: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 | Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 | Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 |  Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Girona
Home and away
Girona vs Almería: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
GironaLWWDDAlmeríaDDWWWGirona vs Almería: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Girona vs Almería: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Girona vs Almería?
Our result tip is Girona to win (odds 2.07), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Girona or draw (1X).
Who will win Girona vs Almería?
Our probabilities: Girona to win 46%, a draw 26%, Almería to win 28%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 15:15, at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona.
Who will be missing?
Girona: no absences. Almería: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.75); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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