Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen is on 24 October 2026 · 14:30 at MEWA Arena (Mainz); Florian Badstübner takes charge. We think FSV Mainz 05 (55%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.80 | 4.34 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.13 | 4.41 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.51 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.61 | 2.50 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 2.30 | 41.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.51 | 61.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.43 | 38.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points), Werder Bremen 5th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L (14:10), Werder Bremen 2W 3D 1L (12:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: FSV Mainz 05 11W 7D 13L, goals 45–42.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: who is missing
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
- R. Zentnerabsence · doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agucalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Alverocalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Musahmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. N'Diayegroin injury · will miss the match
- J. Njinmahthigh injury · will miss the match
- J. Stagemuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Starkmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Toppknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 9th with 10 points after 8 matches (3W 1D 4L), whereas Werder Bremen are 5th with 15 points (4W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Werder Bremen average 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 2L, goals 14–10; Werder Bremen: 2W 3D 1L, goals 12–12.
- Head to head. In their 31 meetings so far, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, Werder Bremen have 13 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 45–42.
What to expect
FSV Mainz 05 should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Werder Bremen are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 31; FSV Mainz 05 11 wins, 7 draws, Werder Bremen 13 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: FSV Mainz 05 14–10, Werder Bremen 12–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 62%.
- Absent: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FSV Mainz 05 are missing: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen are without: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWWerder BremenWWDDWFSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our result tip is FSV Mainz 05 to win (odds 1.80), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is FSV Mainz 05 or draw (1X).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 to win 55%, a draw 23%, Werder Bremen to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at MEWA Arena, Mainz. Referee: Florian Badstübner.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 38% (odds 2.61).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.8%); after that come 1–1 (9.8%) and 2–0 (8.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.