Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC Schalke 04 meet FSV Mainz 05 on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at VELTINS-Arena (Gelsenkirchen), refereed by Richard Hempel, Germany. We expect very little between them. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.02 | 3.70 | 2.44 |
| Market average | 2.96 | 3.55 | 2.36 |
| Lowest odds | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.19 | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.69 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.20 | 43.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.74 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Schalke 04 17th (6 points), FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points).
- Absences: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: who is missing
FC Schalke 04
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
FC Schalke 04
Home and away
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FC Schalke 04 are 17th with 6 points after 8 matches (1W 3D 4L), whereas FSV Mainz 05 are 9th with 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Absent: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FC Schalke 04 are missing: no absences. FSV Mainz 05 are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
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FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our result tip is Draw or FSV Mainz 05 (X2) (odds 1.44), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or FSV Mainz 05 (X2).
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our probabilities: FC Schalke 04 to win 32%, a draw 27%, FSV Mainz 05 to win 41%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen. Referee: Richard Hempel, Germany.
Who will be missing?
FC Schalke 04: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.73); under 2.5 goals is at 43% (odds 2.28).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.5%); after that come 1–2 (8.9%) and 0–1 (8.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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