Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 is on 30 October 2026 · 19:30 at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg); Sascha Stegemann takes charge. We think FSV Mainz 05 (46%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, SV Elversberg are 7th with 13 points after 8 matches (4W 1D 3L), whereas FSV Mainz 05 are 9th with 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. SV Elversberg have scored 1.7 and conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in this competition; FSV Mainz 05 average 2.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. SV Elversberg: 3W 1D 3L, goals 12–15; FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 3L, goals 16–13.
- Head to head. In their 3 meetings so far, SV Elversberg have 1 win, FSV Mainz 05 have 1 win and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 6–4.
What to expect
FSV Mainz 05 should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 3; SV Elversberg 1 win, 1 draw, FSV Mainz 05 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: SV Elversberg 12–15, FSV Mainz 05 16–13.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
SV Elversberg are missing: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. FSV Mainz 05 are without: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.60 | 4.07 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.31 | 3.77 | 2.05 |
| Lowest odds | 2.73 | 3.38 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.44 | 38.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.33 | 40.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.53 | 36.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:08. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: SV Elversberg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SV Elversberg 7th (13 points), FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: SV Elversberg 3W 1D 3L (12:15), FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 3L (16:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: SV Elversberg 1W 1D 1L, goals 6–4.
- Absences: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: who is missing
SV Elversberg
- T. Zimmerschiedankle injury · will miss the match
- N. Darvichhamstring injury · doubtful
- L. Guntherknock · doubtful
- J. Gyamerahthigh injury · doubtful
- L. Pinckertmuscle injury · doubtful
- L. Seifertankle injury · doubtful
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- N. Amiriknee injury · doubtful
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
SV Elversberg
Home and away
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SV ElversbergWLWLDFSV Mainz 05LLWLWSV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
What is the best tip for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our result tip is FSV Mainz 05 to win (odds 2.20), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or FSV Mainz 05 (X2).
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our probabilities: SV Elversberg to win 29%, a draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 to win 46%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 19:30, at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg. Referee: Sascha Stegemann.
Who will be missing?
SV Elversberg: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.60); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.6%); after that come 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.