Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burgos are at home to Castellón on 1 November 2026 · 17:30 at Municipal El Plantío (Burgos), with Rafael Sanchez Lopez as the referee. Our favourites are Castellón (46%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Burgos vs Castellón: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Burgos are 8th with 21 points after 12 matches (6W 3D 3L), whereas Castellón are 1st with 27 points (8W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Burgos have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Castellón average 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Burgos: 6W 2D 3L, goals 16–12; Castellón: 8W 2D 1L, goals 22–4.
- Head to head. In their 4 meetings so far, Burgos have 0 wins, Castellón have 3 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 2–7.
What to expect
Castellón should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 4; Burgos 0 wins, 1 draw, Castellón 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Burgos 16–12, Castellón 22–4.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Burgos are missing: no absences. Castellón are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Burgos vs Castellón: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.32 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.75 | 3.22 | 2.03 |
| Lowest odds | 3.29 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.26 | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.91 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.12 | 30.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.07 | 44.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 17:05. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Burgos 1–1 Castellón, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burgos 8th (21 points), Castellón 1st (27 points).
- Form in the competition: Burgos 6W 2D 3L (16:12), Castellón 8W 2D 1L (22:4).
- H2H: 4 matches: Burgos 0W 1D 3L, goals 2–7.
- Absences: Burgos 0, Castellón 0.
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Burgos vs Castellón: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Burgos vs Castellón: who is missing
Burgos
- No reported absences
Castellón
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Burgos vs Castellón: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 12 | 8-3-1 | 23:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Almería | 12 | 8-2-2 | 23:10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Eibar | 12 | 7-2-3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 |  Granada CF | 12 | 7-2-3 | 20:14 | 23 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 12 | 6-4-2 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sporting Gijón | 12 | 7-1-4 | 13:13 | 22 |
| 7 |  Girona | 12 | 6-3-3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos | 12 | 6-3-3 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:15 | 18 |
| 10 |  Sabadell | 12 | 4-5-3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 12 | 5-2-5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 12 |  Córdoba | 12 | 5-1-6 | 19:22 | 16 |
| 13 |  Valladolid | 12 | 4-3-5 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 11 | 3-5-3 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 12 | 4-2-6 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3-4-5 | 18:23 | 13 |
| 17 |  Leganés | 12 | 3-3-6 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3-2-7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 12 | 2-4-6 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 11 | 3-1-7 | 15:20 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 12 | 2-1-9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Burgos
Home and away
Burgos vs Castellón: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BurgosDWWLLCastellónDWWLDBurgos vs Castellón: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Burgos vs Castellón: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Burgos vs Castellón?
Our result tip is Castellón to win (odds 2.10), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.73). The safer pick is Draw or Castellón (X2).
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
Our probabilities: Burgos to win 25%, a draw 29%, Castellón to win 46%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Municipal El Plantío, Burgos. Referee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez.
Who will be missing?
Burgos: no absences. Castellón: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.95); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.97).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.0%); after that come 0–1 (11.0%) and 1–2 (9.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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