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UEFA Champions League · league phase, matchday 4 · 3 November 2026 · 20:00

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: tip, odds and prediction – 3 November 2026, UEFA Champions League

1Atlético Madrid2.84
XDraw4.01
2Bayern München2.46

Best available odds · Updated 3/11/26, 08:14

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Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: tip and prediction
Our tip
Atlético Madrid draw no bet
1.96

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Atlético Madrid faces Bayern Munich: support Atletico with a draw‑no‑bet safety

We favour a Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet wager at 1.96, which returns the wager should the encounter end in a tie. Simeone’s squad remain unbeaten in nine outings, securing eight victories, and have amassed a 9‑1 scoreline across their previous four fixtures at home.

Atletico’s current run is built on a sturdy back line. All four of their most recent triumphs featured no goals conceded, and the team’s seventh straight league victory versus Levante left them just two points shy of the top spot.
In the Riyadh Air Metropolitano they have shown they are hard to dismantle.

Despite Bayern's ability to dominate – they netted four successive goals in the 2‑2 stalemate with Borussia Dortmund – their Champions League run has hit a standstill, recording back‑to‑back draws versus Viking and Arsenal, and shut‑outs are now uncommon. Harry Kane has added four scores and two set‑up passes across three continental fixtures, however the guests are missing Serge Gnabry, Ismaël Saïbari and Michael Olise, and Manuel Neuer remains out.

Given the home side’s impressive momentum and Bayern’s vulnerability, a Draw No Bet on Atletico at 1.96 presents attractive odds, with the wager returned should the match end level.

Match Information: Day, Commencement Hour & Stadium

On Tuesday, 3 November 2026, Atlético Madrid will face Bayern Munich in the Champions League’s fourth match‑week. The fixture is set for 21:00 local time at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid.

In the United Kingdom the match is shown on TNT Sports, with streaming via HBO Max. Paramount+ carries it in the United States and DAZN in Canada. Broadcast arrangements can differ by region, so check local listings.

Betting Odds and Prime Markets

Choosing the Atletico option with draw protection at 1.96 offers great value for bettors seeking safety from a tie. Additionally, the Both Teams to Score line is worth a look, given that Bayern have witnessed goals from both sides in each of their previous nine Champions League away games, yet the draw‑insured Atletico pick still stands out as the premier choice.

Current Form

Atletico have avoided defeat across nine fixtures in every tournament, securing eight victories, and their continental run has picked up pace following a 2‑0 triumph at home against Manchester United, a stalemate with Stuttgart, and a first loss at Liverpool.

Bayern remain unbeaten, yet their performances lack dominance. After a 2‑2 stalemate with Dortmund, they recorded another pair of draws in the Champions League, and have failed to secure a clean sheet for several weeks while still generating numerous opportunities – 23 attempts versus Dortmund alone.

Key Pre‑Match Statistics

In the most recent quartet of matches at their stadium, Atletico have amassed a total of nine goals while conceding just one, and every one of their last four triumphs across all tournaments has been achieved without allowing a goal.

Bayern have found the net in 24 straight Champions League fixtures, marking the competition’s lengthiest offensive streak,
yet each of their previous nine trips away has produced scoring from both teams, showing a challenge in dominating on foreign soil.

Head‑to‑Head History

Both teams rank high in European football history, and their clashes usually turn into close, tactical duels guided by strict coaches. With few recent head‑to‑head games, the latest performances become decisive, as Atletico’s streak of nine games without defeat overshadows Bayern’s recent string of draws.

Squad Updates: Fitness Issues, Bans & Vital Players

Injuries have reduced Bayern’s offensive options, sidelining Serge Gnabry, Ismaël Saïbari and Michael Olise, while Manuel Neuer also stays unavailable. Harry Kane is healthy and spearheads the attack as the latest Ballon d’Or recipient.

Atletico will be without Mikkel Hjulmand (sent off), João Cardoso (thigh problem) and Koke (muscle issue). Their main squad, which includes Alejandro Grimaldo and Giuliano Simeone, has driven their recent achievements. Check the confirmed line‑ups just before the match starts.

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: the odds compared

Match result1X2
Best available odds2.844.012.46
Market average2.743.862.35
Lowest odds2.513.522.30
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.151.1184.0%
Over 2.5 goals1.471.4365.7%
Under 2.5 goals2.812.7534.3%
Over 3.5 goals2.142.0945.7%
BTTS – yes1.401.3867.5%
BTTS – no3.002.8732.5%

Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:14. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.

All bookmakers →

Match at a glance

  • Likely result: Atlético Madrid 1–1 Bayern München, roughly 4 goals in total.
  • Table: Atlético Madrid 16th (4 points), Bayern München 14th (5 points).
  • Form in the competition: Atlético Madrid 1W 1D 1L (4:3), Bayern München 1W 2D 0L (10:5).
  • H2H: 6 matches: Atlético Madrid 2W 1D 3L, goals 4–8.
  • Absences: Atlético Madrid 2, Bayern München 4.

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?

Atlético Madrid35%
Draw25%
Bayern München41%

We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: more markets and betting tips

Over 1.5 goals84.0% · fair odds 1.19 · best 1.15
Likely
Both sides to score: yes67.5% · fair odds 1.48 · best 1.40
Likely
Over 2.5 goals65.7% · fair odds 1.52 · best 1.47
Likely
Draw or Bayern München (X2)65.2% · fair odds 1.53 · best 1.50
Likely
Under 3.5 goals54.3% · fair odds 1.84 · best 1.84
Possible
Over 3.5 goals45.7% · fair odds 2.19 · best 2.14
Outsider
Bayern München to win40.5% · fair odds 2.47 · best 2.46
Outsider
Atlético Madrid to win34.8% · fair odds 2.87 · best 2.84
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals34.3% · fair odds 2.92 · best 2.81
Outsider
Both sides to score: no32.5% · fair odds 3.07 · best 3.00
Outsider
Draw24.7% · fair odds 4.05 · best 4.01
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.

Corners and cards

Cornersline 9.5 corners
Over 1.70 · Under 2.06
probability of over 54.8%
Cardsline 3.5 cards
Over 1.71 · Under 2.11
probability of over 55.3%

Most likely correct scores

1 : 19.8%
1 : 28.6%
2 : 17.9%
2 : 26.9%
0 : 16.1%
1 : 05.6%

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: who is missing

Atlético Madrid

  • J. Cardosothigh injury · will miss the match
  • M. Hjulmandred card · will miss the match

Bayern München

  • L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
  • S. Gnabrymuscle injury · will miss the match
  • J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
  • I. Saibariankle injury · will miss the match

This list may be updated before kick-off.

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: table positions and form

#TeamPW-D-LGoalsPts
1Paris Saint Germain33-0-014:59
2Aston Villa33-0-012:39
3Liverpool33-0-012:79
4Real Madrid33-0-010:59
5Real Betis33-0-07:49
6VfB Stuttgart32-1-07:27
7Arsenal32-1-06:27
8Barcelona32-0-111:66
9Como32-0-110:56
10Manchester City32-0-19:56
11Club Brugge KV32-0-19:66
12Sporting CP32-0-17:46
13Borussia Dortmund32-0-15:46
14Bayern München31-2-010:55
15AS Roma31-1-18:54
16Atlético Madrid31-1-14:34
17Shakhtar Donetsk31-1-14:34
18PSV Eindhoven31-1-12:24
19Villarreal31-0-28:83
20Inter31-0-25:63
21Manchester United31-0-25:63
22Napoli31-0-25:73
23Galatasaray31-0-26:93
24Lask Linz31-0-26:93
25Sabah FA31-0-23:63
26Feyenoord31-0-24:83
27Lens31-0-23:73
28Bodø/Glimt31-0-24:93
29AEK Athens FC31-0-23:83
30RB Leipzig31-0-23:83
31Fenerbahçe30-2-13:92
32Slavia Praha30-1-24:71
33Viking30-1-25:91
34FC Porto30-0-32:60
35Lille30-0-34:100
36Slovan Bratislava30-0-31:130

Recent matches

Atlético Madrid

31 OctWLevante 0–2 Atlético Madrid
24 OctWAtlético Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña
20 OctDVfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid
17 OctWEspanyol 0–1 Atlético Madrid
13 OctWAtlético Madrid 2–0 Manchester United

Bayern München

31 OctDBayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund
25 OctWSC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern München
21 OctDBayern München 2–2 Arsenal
17 OctWBayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig
13 OctDViking 3–3 Bayern München

Home and away

Atlético Madrid at home1 match: 1W 0D 0L, goals 2–0
Bayern München away1 match: 0W 1D 0L, goals 3–3

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: team stats compared

Atlético MadridBayern München
44%Form56%
29%Attack71%
63%Defence38%
29%Head to head71%
27%Goals73%
38.4%Overall61.8%

These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.

Form in the competition

Atlético MadridDWL
Bayern MünchenDDW

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: head to head

All matches
2Atlético Madrid
1Draws
3Bayern München
1/12/20 · Atlético Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich
21/10/20 · Bayern Munich 4–0 Atlético Madrid
6/12/16 · Bayern Munich 1–0 Atlético Madrid
28/9/16 · Atlético Madrid 1–0 Bayern Munich
3/5/16 · Bayern Munich 2–1 Atlético Madrid
27/4/16 · Atlético Madrid 1–0 Bayern Munich

Returns calculator

Potential return0 €
Net profit0 €
Implied probability0%
Market margin5.1%

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: questions and answers

When is the match?

Tuesday, 3 November 2026, kick‑off at 21:00 local time, Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid.

Our forecast?

We support Atlético Madrid on a Draw No Bet market at 1.96; the wager returns if the match finishes level.

Explanation of Draw No Bet The draw is excluded: a payout occurs when Atletico triumphs, a loss when Bayern prevails, and a stake is returned should the game end in a tie.

What is the best tip for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?

Atlético Madrid draw no bet (1.96)

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?

Our probabilities: Atlético Madrid to win 35%, a draw 25%, Bayern München to win 41%.

What time and where is kick-off?

3 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Referee: François Letexier.

Will there be three or more goals?

Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.47); under 2.5 goals is at 34% (odds 2.81).

Will both teams score?

We think both teams will score with a 67% probability (odds 1.40).

What is the likeliest correct score?

Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.8%); after that come 1–2 (8.6%) and 2–1 (7.9%).

How do you work out your predictions?

Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.

More predictions

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18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.