Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Shelbourne are at home to Waterford on 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Tolka Park (Dublin). Our favourites are Shelbourne (45%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.14 | 3.93 | 3.18 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.74 | 3.06 |
| Lowest odds | 1.99 | 3.28 | 2.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.22 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.43 | 64.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.61 | 35.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Shelbourne 1–1 Waterford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Shelbourne 4th (49 points), Waterford 7th (43 points).
- Form in the competition: Shelbourne 12W 13D 10L (50:47), Waterford 9W 13D 13L (51:59).
- H2H: 16 matches: Shelbourne 9W 3D 4L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Shelbourne vs Waterford: who is missing
Shelbourne
- No reported absences
Waterford
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 |  Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 | Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Shelbourne
Home and away
Shelbourne vs Waterford: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Shelbourne are 4th with 49 points after 36 matches (12W 13D 11L), whereas Waterford are 7th with 43 points (10W 13D 13L).
- Attack and defence. Shelbourne have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Waterford average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Shelbourne: 12W 13D 10L, goals 50–47; Waterford: 9W 13D 13L, goals 51–59.
- Head to head. In their 16 meetings so far, Shelbourne have 9 wins, Waterford have 4 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 22–14.
What to expect
Shelbourne should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.1%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 16; Shelbourne 9 wins, 3 draws, Waterford 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Shelbourne 50–47, Waterford 51–59.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 63%.
- Absent: Shelbourne 0, Waterford 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, best available odds 1.52). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Shelbourne are missing: no absences. Waterford are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Shelbourne vs Waterford: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ShelbourneLWWWDWaterfordWWWLLShelbourne vs Waterford: head to head
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Shelbourne vs Waterford: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our result tip is Shelbourne to win (odds 2.14), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.45). The safer pick is Shelbourne or draw (1X).
Who will win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our probabilities: Shelbourne to win 45%, a draw 25%, Waterford to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Tolka Park, Dublin.
Who will be missing?
Shelbourne: no absences. Waterford: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 63% (odds 1.52); under 2.5 goals is at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.45).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.1%); after that come 2–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (7.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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