Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 5–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Molde v Fredrikstad is on 25 October 2026 · 18:15 at Aker Stadion (Molde); Ola Hobber Nilsen takes charge. We think Molde (68%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.40 | 5.53 | 7.50 |
| Market average | 1.37 | 5.07 | 6.86 |
| Lowest odds | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.38 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.03 | 2.88 | 32.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 1.99 | 47.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Molde 2–1 Fredrikstad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Molde 3rd (43 points), Fredrikstad 11th (29 points).
- Form in the competition: Molde 12W 4D 7L (52:35), Fredrikstad 8W 5D 10L (28:36).
- H2H: 6 matches: Molde 2W 2D 2L, goals 14–8.
- Absences: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Molde vs Fredrikstad: who is missing
Molde
- S. Diopnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Hanseninjury · will miss the match
- E. Hestadabsence · will miss the match
- V. Hoffknee injury · will miss the match
- M. KikkenborgAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- H. Stenevikinjury · will miss the match
Fredrikstad
- D. Eidabsence · will miss the match
- S. Kvileknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Nysveeninjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 | Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Molde
Home and away
Molde vs Fredrikstad: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Molde are 3rd with 43 points after 25 matches (13W 4D 8L), whereas Fredrikstad are 11th with 29 points (8W 5D 12L).
- Attack and defence. Molde have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Fredrikstad average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Molde: 12W 4D 7L, goals 52–35; Fredrikstad: 8W 5D 10L, goals 28–36.
- Head to head. In their 6 meetings so far, Molde have 2 wins, Fredrikstad have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 14–8.
What to expect
Molde should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.60), and our probability for it is 59%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 6; Molde 2 wins, 2 draws, Fredrikstad 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Molde 52–35, Fredrikstad 28–36.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.60). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Molde are missing: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Fredrikstad are without: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MoldeLWWDLFredrikstadLLLDDMolde vs Fredrikstad: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Molde vs Fredrikstad: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our result tip is Molde to win (odds 1.40), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.60). The safer pick is Molde or draw (1X).
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our probabilities: Molde to win 68%, a draw 18%, Fredrikstad to win 14%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 18:15, at Aker Stadion, Molde. Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen.
Who will be missing?
Molde: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Fredrikstad: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.40); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.03).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.60).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.5%); after that come 2–0 (9.1%) and 3–1 (7.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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