Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Hamburger SV are at home to VfB Stuttgart on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at Volksparkstadion (Hamburger), with Robert Hartmann, Germany as the referee. Our favourites are VfB Stuttgart (53%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Hamburger SV are 15th with 9 points after 8 matches (3W 0D 5L), whereas VfB Stuttgart are 11th with 9 points (3W 0D 5L).
What to expect
VfB Stuttgart should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Absent: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.06). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Hamburger SV are missing: no absences. VfB Stuttgart are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.21 | 4.21 | 1.86 |
| Market average | 3.93 | 4.15 | 1.80 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 85.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 47.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.39 | 67.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.90 | 2.82 | 33.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Hamburger SV 15th (9 points), VfB Stuttgart 11th (9 points).
- Absences: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: who is missing
Hamburger SV
- No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.89).
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our probabilities: Hamburger SV to win 24%, a draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart to win 53%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger. Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany.
Who will be missing?
Hamburger SV: no absences. VfB Stuttgart: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 67% (odds 1.42); under 2.5 goals is at 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 67% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.3%); after that come 1–1 (8.9%) and 0–2 (6.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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