Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SC Paderborn 07 are at home to Hamburger SV on 24 October 2026 · 14:30 at Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn), with Martin Petersen as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.46 | 3.86 | 2.92 |
| Market average | 2.39 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.18 | 79.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.61 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.29 | 41.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.51 | 37.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.50 | 62.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.46 | 37.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: SC Paderborn 07 1–1 Hamburger SV, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SC Paderborn 07 14th (9 points), Hamburger SV 15th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: SC Paderborn 07 1W 2D 3L (5:9), Hamburger SV 3W 0D 3L (6:15).
- H2H: 16 matches: SC Paderborn 07 7W 2D 7L, goals 26–25.
- Absences: SC Paderborn 07 5, Hamburger SV 2.
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: who is missing
SC Paderborn 07
- N. Awortwie-Grantknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Batista Meierankle injury · will miss the match
- T. Gayretknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Hoffmeiermuscle injury · will miss the match
- S. Klaasmuscle injury · will miss the match
Hamburger SV
- N. Rembergknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Vuskovicabsence · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
SC Paderborn 07
Home and away
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, SC Paderborn 07 are 14th with 9 points after 8 matches (2W 3D 3L), whereas Hamburger SV are 15th with 9 points (3W 0D 5L).
- Attack and defence. SC Paderborn 07 have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.5 goals per game on average in this competition; Hamburger SV average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. SC Paderborn 07: 1W 2D 3L, goals 5–9; Hamburger SV: 3W 0D 3L, goals 6–15.
- Head to head. In their 16 meetings so far, SC Paderborn 07 have 7 wins, Hamburger SV have 7 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–25.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 16; SC Paderborn 07 7 wins, 2 draws, Hamburger SV 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: SC Paderborn 07 5–9, Hamburger SV 6–15.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 59%.
- Absent: SC Paderborn 07 5, Hamburger SV 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.53). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
SC Paderborn 07 are missing: N. Awortwie-Grant, O. Batista Meier, T. Gayret, M. Hoffmeier, S. Klaas. Hamburger SV are without: N. Remberg, M. Vuskovic. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SC Paderborn 07DWDLWHamburger SVLLWWWSC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: questions and answers
What is the best tip for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our result tip is SC Paderborn 07 or draw (1X) (odds 1.47), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is SC Paderborn 07 or draw (1X).
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 to win 40%, a draw 26%, Hamburger SV to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 14:30, at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. Referee: Martin Petersen.
Who will be missing?
SC Paderborn 07: N. Awortwie-Grant, O. Batista Meier, T. Gayret, M. Hoffmeier, S. Klaas. Hamburger SV: N. Remberg, M. Vuskovic. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 59% (odds 1.68); under 2.5 goals is at 41% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.53).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.0%); after that come 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.