Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derry City v St Patrick's Athl. is on 19 October 2026 · 20:00 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry); Aaron O'Dowd takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Derry City are 5th with 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L), whereas St Patrick's Athl. are 3rd with 60 points (17W 9D 10L).
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, Derry City have 15 wins, St Patrick's Athl. have 7 wins and 10 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 39–25.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.83), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; Derry City 15 wins, 10 draws, St Patrick's Athl. 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 47%.
- Absent: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athl. 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 52%, best available odds 1.80). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Derry City are missing: no absences. St Patrick's Athl. are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.60 | 3.38 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.38 | 3.23 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.05 | 3.01 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.76 | 53.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.49 | 26.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.77 | 52.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.93 | 47.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 19/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 St Patrick's Athl., roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), St Patrick's Athl. 3rd (60 points).
- H2H: 32 matches: Derry City 15W 10D 7L, goals 39–25.
- Absences: Derry City 0, St Patrick's Athl. 0.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: who is missing
Derry City
- No reported absences
St Patrick's Athl.
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athl. | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 |  Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
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Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our result tip is Draw or St Patrick's Athl. (X2) (odds 1.30), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.83). The safer pick is Draw or St Patrick's Athl. (X2).
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our probabilities: Derry City to win 27%, a draw 29%, St Patrick's Athl. to win 44%.
What time and where is kick-off?
19 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: Aaron O'Dowd.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. St Patrick's Athl.: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 47% (odds 2.06); under 2.5 goals is at 53% (odds 1.83).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 52% probability (odds 1.80).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.5%); after that come 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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