Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derry City v Dundalk is on 23 October 2026 · 19:45 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry); M. Lynch takes charge. We think Derry City (55%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Derry City vs Dundalk: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Derry City are 5th with 48 points after 36 matches (11W 15D 10L), whereas Dundalk are 6th with 45 points (11W 12D 13L).
- Head to head. In their 29 meetings so far, Derry City have 8 wins, Dundalk have 9 wins and 12 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 46–41.
What to expect
Derry City should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), and our probability for it is 61%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 29; Derry City 8 wins, 12 draws, Dundalk 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.64). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Derry City are missing: no absences. Dundalk are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Derry City vs Dundalk: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.92 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Market average | 1.70 | 3.92 | 4.30 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.57 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.33 | 40.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.39 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.56 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.27 | 40.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 23/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 Dundalk, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), Dundalk 6th (45 points).
- H2H: 29 matches: Derry City 8W 12D 9L, goals 46–41.
- Absences: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Derry City vs Dundalk: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derry City vs Dundalk: who is missing
Derry City
- No reported absences
Dundalk
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Derry City vs Dundalk: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
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Derry City vs Dundalk: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our result tip is Derry City to win (odds 1.92), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54). The safer pick is Derry City or draw (1X).
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our probabilities: Derry City to win 55%, a draw 24%, Dundalk to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: M. Lynch.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. Dundalk: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.64); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.40).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.3%); after that come 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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