Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Utrecht v PEC Zwolle is on 24 October 2026 · 15:30 at Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht); Martijn Vos takes charge. We think Utrecht (57%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Utrecht are 12th with 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), whereas PEC Zwolle are 14th with 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Utrecht have scored 1.8 and conceded 2.9 goals per game on average in this competition; PEC Zwolle average 1.1 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Utrecht: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–26; PEC Zwolle: 2W 1D 6L, goals 10–22.
- Head to head. In their 31 meetings so far, Utrecht have 14 wins, PEC Zwolle have 5 wins and 12 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 58–38.
What to expect
Utrecht should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 61%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 31; Utrecht 14 wins, 12 draws, PEC Zwolle 5 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Utrecht 16–26, PEC Zwolle 10–22.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Utrecht 8, PEC Zwolle 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Utrecht are missing: A. Engwanda, V. Jensen, M. Jonathans, N. Ohio, K. Paredes, V. Barkas, M. Broholm, A. Stepanov. PEC Zwolle are without: S. Floranus, F. Krastev, Y. Namli. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.70 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Market average | 1.65 | 4.14 | 4.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.54 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.41 | 38.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.34 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.30 | 40.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Utrecht 2–1 PEC Zwolle, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Utrecht 12th (12 points), PEC Zwolle 14th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Utrecht 3W 2D 4L (16:26), PEC Zwolle 2W 1D 6L (10:22).
- H2H: 31 matches: Utrecht 14W 12D 5L, goals 58–38.
- Absences: Utrecht 8, PEC Zwolle 3.
Who will win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: who is missing
Utrecht
- A. Engwandahamstring injury · will miss the match
- V. Jensenknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Jonathansknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Ohioknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Paredesknee injury · will miss the match
- V. Barkasnot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Broholmnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Stepanovankle injury · doubtful
PEC Zwolle
- S. Floranusinjury · will miss the match
- F. KrastevAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Y. Namliknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Utrecht
Home and away
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
UtrechtLDWWLPEC ZwolleWDWLLUtrecht vs PEC Zwolle: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle +1 (Asian handicap) (1.79); Over 2.5 goals (1.57).
Who will win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our probabilities: Utrecht to win 57%, a draw 23%, PEC Zwolle to win 20%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 15:30, at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht. Referee: Martijn Vos.
Who will be missing?
Utrecht: A. Engwanda, V. Jensen, M. Jonathans, N. Ohio, K. Paredes, V. Barkas, M. Broholm, A. Stepanov. PEC Zwolle: S. Floranus, F. Krastev, Y. Namli. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.55).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.9%); after that come 1–1 (9.9%) and 2–0 (8.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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