Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Pafos v Riga is on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi); M. Barbu takes charge. We think Pafos (53%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Pafos vs Riga: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Pafos are 27th with 1 point after 2 matches (0W 1D 1L), whereas Riga are 21st with 2 points (0W 2D 0L).
What to expect
Pafos should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Pafos are missing: no absences. Riga are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Pafos vs Riga: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.88 | 3.90 | 4.59 |
| Market average | 1.78 | 3.71 | 4.29 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.02 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 2.91 | 32.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 22/10/26, 16:28. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Pafos 1–1 Riga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Pafos 27th (1 point), Riga 21st (2 points).
- Absences: Pafos 0, Riga 0.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Pafos vs Riga: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Pafos vs Riga: who is missing
Pafos
- No reported absences
Riga
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Pafos vs Riga: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 |  Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
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Pafos vs Riga: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Pafos vs Riga?
Riga +0.75 (Asian handicap) (2.04); Both teams to score (1.75).
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
Our probabilities: Pafos to win 53%, a draw 25%, Riga to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
22 October 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi. Referee: M. Barbu.
Who will be missing?
Pafos: no absences. Riga: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.86); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.75).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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