Bet with MINO CASINO →Holstein Kiel are at home to Arminia Bielefeld on 7 November 2026 · 12:00 at Holstein-Stadion (Kiel). We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Holstein Kiel are 17th with 8 points after 10 matches (1W 5D 4L), whereas Arminia Bielefeld are 7th with 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Holstein Kiel have scored 1.0 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Arminia Bielefeld average 1.6 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Holstein Kiel: 1W 5D 4L, goals 10–12; Arminia Bielefeld: 4W 2D 4L, goals 16–15.
- Head to head. In their 13 meetings so far, Holstein Kiel have 2 wins, Arminia Bielefeld have 8 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 16–24.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Arminia Bielefeld are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 13; Holstein Kiel 2 wins, 3 draws, Arminia Bielefeld 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Holstein Kiel 10–12, Arminia Bielefeld 16–15.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Holstein Kiel 0, Arminia Bielefeld 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Holstein Kiel are missing: no absences. Arminia Bielefeld are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.47 | 3.60 | 2.87 |
| Market average | 2.40 | 3.43 | 2.72 |
| Lowest odds | 2.27 | 3.16 | 2.54 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.20 | 77.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.70 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.11 | 44.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.73 | 2.65 | 35.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.35 | 2.28 | 40.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Holstein Kiel 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Holstein Kiel 17th (8 points), Arminia Bielefeld 7th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Holstein Kiel 1W 5D 4L (10:12), Arminia Bielefeld 4W 2D 4L (16:15).
- H2H: 13 matches: Holstein Kiel 2W 3D 8L, goals 16–24.
- Absences: Holstein Kiel 0, Arminia Bielefeld 0.
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: who is missing
Holstein Kiel
- No reported absences
Arminia Bielefeld
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 10 | 9-1-0 | 23:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6-3-1 | 24:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5-4-1 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5-3-2 | 9:7 | 18 |
| 5 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5-2-3 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4-3-3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 7 | Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4-2-4 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 8 |  FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2-6-2 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3-2-5 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 11 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3-2-5 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 12 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Energie Cottbus | 10 | 2-4-4 | 18:20 | 10 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 10 | 3-1-6 | 16:18 | 10 |
| 16 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1-5-4 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 18 |  Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2-2-6 | 12:20 | 8 |
Recent matches
Holstein Kiel
Home and away
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Holstein KielLWDLDArminia BielefeldWLWWDHolstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Holstein Kiel +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.50); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our probabilities: Holstein Kiel to win 39%, a draw 27%, Arminia Bielefeld to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
7 November 2026, kick-off at 12:00, at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel.
Who will be missing?
Holstein Kiel: no absences. Arminia Bielefeld: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.73); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.6%); after that come 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–0 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.