Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli are at home to 1. FC Nürnberg on 1 November 2026 · 12:30 at Millerntor-Stadion (St. Pauli Burger), with Robert Hartmann as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FC St. Pauli are 8th with 12 points after 10 matches (2W 6D 2L), whereas 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd with 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. FC St. Pauli have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; 1. FC Nürnberg average 2.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC St. Pauli: 2W 6D 1L, goals 11–9; 1. FC Nürnberg: 5W 3D 1L, goals 21–12.
- Head to head. In their 21 meetings so far, FC St. Pauli have 11 wins, 1. FC Nürnberg have 4 wins and 6 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 32–28.
What to expect
FC St. Pauli should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the 1. FC Nürnberg are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 21; FC St. Pauli 11 wins, 6 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: FC St. Pauli 11–9, 1. FC Nürnberg 21–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Absent: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FC St. Pauli are missing: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.58 | 3.15 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.28 | 2.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.66 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.17 | 43.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.56 | 36.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.53 | 60.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.35 | 39.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 12:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC St. Pauli 8th (12 points), 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: FC St. Pauli 2W 6D 1L (11:9), 1. FC Nürnberg 5W 3D 1L (21:12).
- H2H: 21 matches: FC St. Pauli 11W 6D 4L, goals 32–28.
- Absences: FC St. Pauli 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: who is missing
FC St. Pauli
- No reported absences
1. FC Nürnberg
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 10 | 9-1-0 | 23:8 | 28 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6-3-1 | 24:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5-4-1 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5-3-2 | 9:7 | 18 |
| 5 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5-2-3 | 21:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4-3-3 | 17:18 | 15 |
| 7 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4-2-4 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2-6-2 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3-2-5 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 11 |  VfL Bochum | 10 | 3-2-5 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 12 |  Hannover 96 | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:16 | 11 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:21 | 11 |
| 14 |  Energie Cottbus | 10 | 2-4-4 | 18:20 | 10 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 10 | 3-1-6 | 16:18 | 10 |
| 16 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:19 | 9 |
| 17 |  Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1-5-4 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 18 |  Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2-2-6 | 12:20 | 8 |
Recent matches
FC St. Pauli
Home and away
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FC St. PauliLDDWD1. FC NürnbergWLDDWFC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our result tip is FC St. Pauli or draw (1X) (odds 1.37), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is FC St. Pauli or draw (1X).
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our probabilities: FC St. Pauli to win 44%, a draw 26%, 1. FC Nürnberg to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger. Referee: Robert Hartmann.
Who will be missing?
FC St. Pauli: no absences. 1. FC Nürnberg: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.70); under 2.5 goals is at 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 2–1 (9.3%) and 1–0 (8.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.