Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Amiens are at home to Thionville Lusitanos on 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade de la Licorne (Amiens). Our favourites are Amiens (55%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Amiens are 8th with 17 points after 11 matches (4W 5D 2L), whereas Thionville Lusitanos are 12th with 13 points (3W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Amiens have scored 1.3 and conceded 0.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Thionville Lusitanos average 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Amiens: 4W 4D 2L, goals 13–4; Thionville Lusitanos: 3W 3D 4L, goals 15–16.
- Head to head. In their 1 meetings so far, Amiens have 0 wins, Thionville Lusitanos have 0 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 1–1.
What to expect
Amiens should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.84), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 1; Amiens 0 wins, 1 draw, Thionville Lusitanos 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Amiens 13–4, Thionville Lusitanos 15–16.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Amiens 0, Thionville Lusitanos 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 52%, best available odds 1.83). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Amiens are missing: no absences. Thionville Lusitanos are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.72 | 4.13 | 5.00 |
| Market average | 1.64 | 3.65 | 4.64 |
| Lowest odds | 1.58 | 3.26 | 4.02 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.24 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.80 | 51.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.94 | 48.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.92 | 31.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.78 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 10.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Amiens 1–0 Thionville Lusitanos, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Amiens 8th (17 points), Thionville Lusitanos 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Amiens 4W 4D 2L (13:4), Thionville Lusitanos 3W 3D 4L (15:16).
- H2H: 1 match: Amiens 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: Amiens 0, Thionville Lusitanos 0.
Who will win Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: who is missing
Amiens
- No reported absences
Thionville Lusitanos
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 11 | 7-3-1 | 18:10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Rouen | 11 | 7-2-2 | 20:9 | 23 |
| 3 |  Versailles | 11 | 7-1-3 | 19:13 | 22 |
| 4 |  Caen | 11 | 6-1-4 | 21:15 | 19 |
| 5 |  Cannes | 11 | 4-6-1 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 6 |  Le Puy Foot | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 7 |  Concarneau | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 8 | Amiens | 11 | 4-5-2 | 14:5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Fleury 91 | 11 | 4-4-3 | 17:13 | 16 |
| 10 |  Gobelins | 11 | 4-4-3 | 11:11 | 16 |
| 11 |  Bastia | 11 | 4-3-4 | 10:12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 11 | 3-4-4 | 16:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Quevilly | 11 | 3-4-4 | 11:16 | 13 |
| 14 |  Orléans | 11 | 2-4-5 | 10:15 | 10 |
| 15 |  Valenciennes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 16 |  Villefranche | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:24 | 8 |
| 17 |  Aubagne | 11 | 2-1-8 | 6:17 | 7 |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 11 | 1-2-8 | 5:18 | 5 |
Recent matches
Amiens
Home and away
Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AmiensDDWDWThionville LusitanosDLLLDAmiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: head to head
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Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our result tip is Amiens to win (odds 1.72), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.84). The safer pick is Amiens or draw (1X).
Who will win Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our probabilities: Amiens to win 55%, a draw 25%, Thionville Lusitanos to win 20%.
What time and where is kick-off?
29 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade de la Licorne, Amiens.
Who will be missing?
Amiens: no absences. Thionville Lusitanos: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.84); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.03).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 52% probability (odds 1.83).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (11.8%); after that come 1–1 (11.2%) and 2–0 (10.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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