Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Aberdeen meet Falkirk on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Pittodrie Stadium (Aberdeen). Aberdeen (48%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Aberdeen are 10th with 11 points after 11 matches (3W 2D 6L), whereas Falkirk are 4th with 18 points (5W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Aberdeen have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Falkirk average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Aberdeen: 3W 2D 5L, goals 12–13; Falkirk: 3W 3D 4L, goals 12–12.
- Head to head. In their 4 meetings so far, Aberdeen have 0 wins, Falkirk have 3 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 1–4.
What to expect
Aberdeen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Falkirk are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 4; Aberdeen 0 wins, 1 draw, Falkirk 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Aberdeen 12–13, Falkirk 12–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 51%.
- Absent: Aberdeen 0, Falkirk 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Aberdeen are missing: no absences. Falkirk are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.01 | 3.56 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.47 | 3.79 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.68 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.87 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.94 | 49.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 30.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.69 | 54.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.04 | 45.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Aberdeen 1–1 Falkirk, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aberdeen 10th (11 points), Falkirk 4th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Aberdeen 3W 2D 5L (12:13), Falkirk 3W 3D 4L (12:12).
- H2H: 4 matches: Aberdeen 0W 1D 3L, goals 1–4.
- Absences: Aberdeen 0, Falkirk 0.
Who will win Aberdeen vs Falkirk?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: who is missing
Aberdeen
- No reported absences
Falkirk
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 12 | 9-1-2 | 27:10 | 28 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 11 | 7-3-1 | 19:9 | 24 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 11 | 6-2-3 | 24:17 | 20 |
| 4 | Falkirk | 12 | 5-3-4 | 15:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Dundee | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  Dundee Utd | 11 | 4-4-3 | 16:16 | 16 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4-2-6 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3-3-6 | 14:20 | 12 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:28 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2-2-7 | 11:17 | 8 |
Recent matches
Aberdeen
Home and away
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AberdeenLLWLDFalkirkWWWWLAberdeen vs Falkirk: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Aberdeen vs Falkirk?
Our result tip is Aberdeen to win (odds 2.01), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Aberdeen or draw (1X).
Who will win Aberdeen vs Falkirk?
Our probabilities: Aberdeen to win 48%, a draw 27%, Falkirk to win 25%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen.
Who will be missing?
Aberdeen: no absences. Falkirk: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 51% (odds 1.91); under 2.5 goals is at 49% (odds 2.01).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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