Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Metz meet PAU on 30 October 2026 · 19:00 at Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz), refereed by Bastein Dechepy. Metz (48%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Metz vs PAU: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Metz are 10th with 14 points after 11 matches (3W 5D 3L), whereas PAU are 5th with 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Metz have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; PAU average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Metz: 3W 5D 2L, goals 16–14; PAU: 5W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. In their 5 meetings so far, Metz have 1 win, PAU have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 4–6.
What to expect
Metz should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the PAU are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 5; Metz 1 win, 2 draws, PAU 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Metz 16–14, PAU 13–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 54%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Metz are missing: no absences. PAU are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Metz vs PAU: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.08 | 3.79 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.93 | 3.49 | 3.65 |
| Lowest odds | 1.80 | 3.07 | 2.89 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.25 | 74.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.82 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.96 | 48.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 3.08 | 30.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.03 | 45.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Metz 1–1 PAU, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Metz 10th (14 points), PAU 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Metz 3W 5D 2L (16:14), PAU 5W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 5 matches: Metz 1W 2D 2L, goals 4–6.
- Absences: Metz 0, PAU 0.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Metz vs PAU: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Metz vs PAU: who is missing
Metz
- No reported absences
PAU
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Metz vs PAU: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saint-Étienne | 11 | 8-1-2 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Montpellier | 11 | 7-3-1 | 16:6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Nancy | 11 | 7-1-3 | 16:9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Reims | 11 | 5-6-0 | 22:12 | 21 |
| 5 | PAU | 11 | 6-2-3 | 16:11 | 20 |
| 6 |  RED Star FC 93 | 11 | 5-2-4 | 14:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Annecy | 11 | 5-1-5 | 14:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Dijon | 11 | 4-3-4 | 20:19 | 15 |
| 9 |  Guingamp | 11 | 4-2-5 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 10 | Metz | 11 | 3-5-3 | 17:17 | 14 |
| 11 |  Rodez | 11 | 4-1-6 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 12 |  Dunkerque | 11 | 3-3-5 | 14:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sochaux | 11 | 2-5-4 | 8:14 | 11 |
| 14 |  Boulogne | 11 | 1-7-3 | 7:8 | 10 |
| 15 |  Nantes | 11 | 2-3-6 | 12:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Laval | 11 | 2-3-6 | 14:21 | 9 |
| 17 |  Clermont Foot | 11 | 0-8-3 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 18 |  Grenoble | 11 | 2-2-7 | 10:20 | 8 |
Recent matches
Metz
Home and away
Metz vs PAU: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MetzLDWLDPAUWWWWWMetz vs PAU: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Metz vs PAU: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Metz vs PAU?
Metz -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
Our probabilities: Metz to win 48%, a draw 27%, PAU to win 25%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz. Referee: Bastein Dechepy.
Who will be missing?
Metz: no absences. PAU: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.90); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.