Bet with MINO CASINO →FC Lugano are at home to Kauno Žalgiris on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at AIL Arena (Lugano). Our favourites are FC Lugano (79%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FC Lugano are 2nd with 6 points after 2 matches (2W 0D 0L), whereas Kauno Žalgiris are 36th with 0 points (0W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. FC Lugano have scored 2.6 and conceded 1.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Kauno Žalgiris average 0.5 scored and 4.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC Lugano: 6W 2D 0L, goals 21–9; Kauno Žalgiris: 0W 0D 2L, goals 1–8.
What to expect
FC Lugano should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–0 (10.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.22, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Both teams to score (odds 1.87), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: FC Lugano 21–9, Kauno Žalgiris 1–8.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Absent: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FC Lugano are missing: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.22 | 7.80 | 14.70 |
| Market average | 1.18 | 6.92 | 12.22 |
| Lowest odds | 1.15 | 5.99 | 8.87 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.09 | 85.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.35 | 69.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.15 | 3.07 | 30.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 12:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC Lugano 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FC Lugano 2nd (6 points), Kauno Žalgiris 36th (0 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Lugano 6W 2D 0L (21:9), Kauno Žalgiris 0W 0D 2L (1:8).
- Absences: FC Lugano 0, Kauno Žalgiris 0.
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: who is missing
FC Lugano
- No reported absences
Kauno Žalgiris
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 |  Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Lugano
Home and away
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FC LuganoWWKauno ŽalgirisLLReturns calculator
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
FC Lugano -1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Both teams to score (1.87).
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our probabilities: FC Lugano to win 79%, a draw 14%, Kauno Žalgiris to win 8%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at AIL Arena, Lugano.
Who will be missing?
FC Lugano: no absences. Kauno Žalgiris: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 69% (odds 1.39); under 2.5 goals is at 31% (odds 3.15).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.87).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–0 (10.7%); after that come 3–0 (10.0%) and 2–1 (8.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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