Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Covadonga v Valladolid is on 29 October 2026 · 19:00 at Estadio El Bayu (Pola de Siero). We think Valladolid (78%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Head to head. In their 1 meetings so far, Covadonga have 0 wins, Valladolid have 1 win and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 0–1.
What to expect
Valladolid should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–3, about 4 goals combined, and 0–2 (12.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.22, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 1; Covadonga 0 wins, 0 draws, Valladolid 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.0 goals.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 63%.
- Absent: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best available odds 1.63). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Covadonga are missing: no absences. Valladolid are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 14.25 | 7.00 | 1.22 |
| Market average | 12.73 | 6.29 | 1.20 |
| Lowest odds | 10.75 | 5.80 | 1.17 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.18 | 42.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
| BTTS – no | 1.73 | 1.69 | 54.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Covadonga 0–2 Valladolid, roughly 4 goals in total.
- H2H: 1 match: Covadonga 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: Covadonga 0, Valladolid 0.
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Covadonga vs Valladolid: who is missing
Covadonga
- No reported absences
Valladolid
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Covadonga vs Valladolid: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Covadonga vs Valladolid: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Covadonga +2 (Asian handicap) (1.80); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Our probabilities: Covadonga to win 7%, a draw 15%, Valladolid to win 78%.
What time and where is kick-off?
29 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero.
Who will be missing?
Covadonga: no absences. Valladolid: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 63% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 45% probability (odds 2.20).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–2 (12.6%); after that come 0–3 (10.7%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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