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Copa del Rey · round 128 · 29 October 2026 · 19:00

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: tip, odds and prediction – 29 October 2026, Copa del Rey

Guijuelo
1–3
1Guijuelo8.50
XDraw4.90
2Sporting Gijón1.41

Best available odds · Updated 29/10/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Guijuelo are at home to Sporting Gijón on 29 October 2026 · 19:00 at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos (Guijuelo). Our favourites are Sporting Gijón (67%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: tip and prediction
Result
Sporting Gijón to win
1.41
Goals
No to both teams scoring
1.75
Combo
Sporting Gijón plus over 2.5 goals
2.43
41% · combo fair price
67%chance of the result
54%chance for the goals tip
0–2likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Draw or Sporting Gijón (X2) – 87% probability, top odds 1.10.

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Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: match preview and analysis

How we arrived at this tip

  1. Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, Guijuelo have 0 wins, Sporting Gijón have 2 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 1–6.

What to expect

Sporting Gijón should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 0–2 (12.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.

Our tip for goals is No to both teams scoring (odds 1.75), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

Prediction: key points

  1. Meetings: 2; Guijuelo 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting Gijón 2 wins.
  2. Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.5 goals.
  3. We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
  4. Absent: Guijuelo 0, Sporting Gijón 0.

Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no

Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 54%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.

Absences

Guijuelo are missing: no absences. Sporting Gijón are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: the odds compared

Match result1X2
Best available odds8.504.901.41
Market average7.384.451.39
Lowest odds6.504.101.33
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.261.2374.6%
Over 2.5 goals1.801.7952.3%
Under 2.5 goals2.021.9647.7%
Over 3.5 goals3.002.8732.1%
BTTS – yes2.052.0046.1%
BTTS – no1.751.7253.9%

Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.3%.

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Match at a glance

  • Likely result: Guijuelo 0–2 Sporting Gijón, roughly 3 goals in total.
  • H2H: 2 matches: Guijuelo 0W 0D 2L, goals 1–6.
  • Absences: Guijuelo 0, Sporting Gijón 0.

Who will win Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón?

Guijuelo13%
Draw21%
Sporting Gijón67%

We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: more markets and betting tips

Draw or Sporting Gijón (X2)87.4% · fair odds 1.14 · best 1.10
Likely
Over 1.5 goals74.6% · fair odds 1.34 · best 1.26
Likely
Under 3.5 goals67.9% · fair odds 1.47 · best 1.40
Likely
Sporting Gijón to win66.6% · fair odds 1.50 · best 1.41
Likely
Both sides to score: no53.9% · fair odds 1.86 · best 1.75
Possible
Over 2.5 goals52.3% · fair odds 1.91 · best 1.80
Possible
Under 2.5 goals47.7% · fair odds 2.10 · best 2.02
Outsider
Both sides to score: yes46.1% · fair odds 2.17 · best 2.05
Outsider
Over 3.5 goals32.1% · fair odds 3.11 · best 3.00
Outsider
Draw20.8% · fair odds 4.81 · best 4.90
Outsider
Guijuelo to win12.6% · fair odds 7.97 · best 8.50
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.

Most likely correct scores

0 : 212.8%
0 : 112.8%
1 : 29.6%
1 : 19.6%
0 : 38.5%
1 : 36.4%

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: who is missing

Guijuelo

  • No reported absences

Sporting Gijón

  • No reported absences

This list may be updated before kick-off.

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: team stats compared

GuijueloSporting Gijón
0%Head to head100%
0%Goals100%

These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: head to head

All matches
0Guijuelo
0Draws
2Sporting Gijón
29/10/26 · Guijuelo 1–3 Sporting Gijón
1/11/23 · Guijuelo 0–3 Sporting Gijón

Returns calculator

Potential return0 €
Net profit0 €
Implied probability0%
Market margin8.3%

Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón: questions and answers

What is the best tip for Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón?

Our result tip is Sporting Gijón to win (odds 1.41), and our goals tip is No to both teams scoring (odds 1.75). The safer pick is Draw or Sporting Gijón (X2).

Who will win Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón?

Our probabilities: Guijuelo to win 13%, a draw 21%, Sporting Gijón to win 67%.

What time and where is kick-off?

29 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos, Guijuelo.

Who will be missing?

Guijuelo: no absences. Sporting Gijón: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.

Will there be three or more goals?

Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.80); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.02).

Will both teams score?

We think both teams will score with a 46% probability (odds 2.05).

What is the likeliest correct score?

Our likeliest score is 0–2 (12.8%); after that come 0–1 (12.8%) and 1–2 (9.6%).

How do you work out your predictions?

Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.

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