Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
VfL Bochum are at home to FSV Mainz 05 on 27 October 2026 · 17:00 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion (Bochum), with M. Bacher as the referee. Our favourites are FSV Mainz 05 (56%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.02 | 4.35 | 1.78 |
| Market average | 4.54 | 4.01 | 1.65 |
| Lowest odds | 4.10 | 3.74 | 1.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.55 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.41 | 2.37 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.32 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.29 | 40.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 27/10/26, 16:22. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: VfL Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: VfL Bochum 1W 0D 0L (2:1), FSV Mainz 05 1W 0D 0L (9:0).
- H2H: 11 matches: VfL Bochum 3W 2D 6L, goals 15–21.
- Absences: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: who is missing
VfL Bochum
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Attack and defence. VfL Bochum have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; FSV Mainz 05 average 9.0 scored and 0.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. VfL Bochum: 1W 0D 0L, goals 2–1; FSV Mainz 05: 1W 0D 0L, goals 9–0.
- Head to head. In their 11 meetings so far, VfL Bochum have 3 wins, FSV Mainz 05 have 6 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 15–21.
What to expect
FSV Mainz 05 should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), and our probability for it is 60%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 11; VfL Bochum 3 wins, 2 draws, FSV Mainz 05 6 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: VfL Bochum 2–1, FSV Mainz 05 9–0.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: VfL Bochum 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
VfL Bochum are missing: no absences. FSV Mainz 05 are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
VfL BochumWFSV Mainz 05WVfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: head to head
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VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
What is the best tip for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our result tip is FSV Mainz 05 to win (odds 1.78), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60). The safer pick is Draw or FSV Mainz 05 (X2).
Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our probabilities: VfL Bochum to win 21%, a draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 to win 56%.
What time and where is kick-off?
27 October 2026, kick-off at 17:00, at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. Referee: M. Bacher.
Who will be missing?
VfL Bochum: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.60); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.41).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.9%); after that come 1–1 (9.9%) and 0–2 (8.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.