EFL Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland meet Brentford on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), refereed by G. Ward. Brentford (53%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Sunderland vs Brentford: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Attack and defence. Sunderland have scored 1.0 and conceded 0.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Brentford average 4.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0; Brentford: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Head to head. In their 5 meetings so far, Sunderland have 1 win, Brentford have 2 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 6–10.
What to expect
Brentford should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 5; Sunderland 1 win, 2 draws, Brentford 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sunderland 1–0, Brentford 8–2.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 54%.
- Absent: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 56%, best available odds 1.67). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sunderland are missing: no absences. Brentford are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.55 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.30 | 3.81 | 1.78 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.74 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.08 | 45.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.75 | 33.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.10 | 44.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Brentford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 0D 0L (1:0), Brentford 2W 0D 0L (8:2).
- H2H: 5 matches: Sunderland 1W 2D 2L, goals 6–10.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sunderland vs Brentford: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sunderland vs Brentford: who is missing
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Brentford
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SunderlandWBrentfordWWSunderland vs Brentford: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sunderland vs Brentford: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sunderland vs Brentford?
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap) (1.62); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
Our probabilities: Sunderland to win 22%, a draw 25%, Brentford to win 53%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: G. Ward.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: no absences. Brentford: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.77); under 2.5 goals is at 46% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 0–1 (10.6%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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