KNVB Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
MVV v Excelsior is on 28 October 2026 · 19:00 at De Geusselt (Maastricht); A. Bos takes charge. We think Excelsior (67%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
MVV vs Excelsior: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
What to expect
Excelsior should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Absent: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
MVV are missing: no absences. Excelsior are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
MVV vs Excelsior: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 7.00 | 4.87 | 1.42 |
| Market average | 6.77 | 4.72 | 1.40 |
| Lowest odds | 6.41 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.11 | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.16 | 43.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.13 | 43.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: MVV 1–2 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Absences: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
MVV vs Excelsior: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
MVV vs Excelsior: who is missing
MVV
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
MVV vs Excelsior: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Returns calculator
MVV vs Excelsior: questions and answers
What is the best tip for MVV vs Excelsior?
Our result tip is Excelsior to win (odds 1.42), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or Excelsior (X2).
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
Our probabilities: MVV to win 14%, a draw 20%, Excelsior to win 67%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 19:00, at De Geusselt, Maastricht. Referee: A. Bos.
Who will be missing?
MVV: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 64% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.8%); after that come 0–2 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.