EFL Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool are at home to Chelsea on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool), with D. England as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.09 |
| Market average | 2.28 | 3.67 | 2.97 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.52 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 2.43 | 38.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 41.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 1W 0D 0L (3:1), Chelsea 2W 0D 0L (8:3).
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Liverpool vs Chelsea: who is missing
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Attack and defence. Liverpool have scored 3.0 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Chelsea average 4.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Liverpool: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1; Chelsea: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–3.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Liverpool 3–1, Chelsea 8–3.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 62%.
- Absent: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 58%, best available odds 1.65). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Liverpool are missing: no absences. Chelsea are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolWChelseaWWReturns calculator
Liverpool vs Chelsea: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our result tip is Liverpool or draw (1X) (odds 1.43), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56). The safer pick is Liverpool or draw (1X).
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our probabilities: Liverpool to win 42%, a draw 26%, Chelsea to win 32%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: D. England.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.56); under 2.5 goals is at 38% (odds 2.53).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.6%); after that come 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.