KNVB Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis are at home to Heerenveen on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Sportpark Dijkpolder (Maassluis), with A. Lindhout as the referee. Our favourites are Heerenveen (75%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
What to expect
Heerenveen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–3, about 4 goals combined, and 0–2 (10.1%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.24, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Absent: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 54%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Excelsior Maassluis are missing: no absences. Heerenveen are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.24 |
| Market average | 9.18 | 5.89 | 1.22 |
| Lowest odds | 7.93 | 5.70 | 1.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.36 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.92 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 48.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.04 | 45.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 10.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Excelsior Maassluis 0–2 Heerenveen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Absences: Excelsior Maassluis 0, Heerenveen 0.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: who is missing
Excelsior Maassluis
- No reported absences
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Excelsior MaassluisDWHeerenveenReturns calculator
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Our result tip is Heerenveen to win (odds 1.24), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.73). The safer pick is Draw or Heerenveen (X2).
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?
Our probabilities: Excelsior Maassluis to win 10%, a draw 15%, Heerenveen to win 75%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis. Referee: A. Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Excelsior Maassluis: no absences. Heerenveen: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 68% (odds 1.36); under 2.5 goals is at 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–2 (10.1%); after that come 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–3 (8.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.