EFL Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Everton meet Newcastle on 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool), refereed by F. Hallam. We expect very little between them. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Everton vs Newcastle: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Attack and defence. Everton have scored 2.5 and conceded 0.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Newcastle average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Everton: 2W 0D 0L, goals 5–0; Newcastle: 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–2.
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, Everton have 17 wins, Newcastle have 10 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 53–41.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; Everton 17 wins, 5 draws, Newcastle 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Everton 5–0, Newcastle 4–2.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Absent: Everton 0, Newcastle 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 61%, best available odds 1.55). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Everton are missing: no absences. Newcastle are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Everton vs Newcastle: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.44 | 3.56 | 3.15 |
| Market average | 2.34 | 3.46 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.21 | 3.22 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.20 | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.67 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.19 | 43.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.62 | 35.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.53 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.37 | 39.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Everton 1–1 Newcastle, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Everton 2W 0D 0L (5:0), Newcastle 2W 0D 0L (4:2).
- H2H: 32 matches: Everton 17W 5D 10L, goals 53–41.
- Absences: Everton 0, Newcastle 0.
Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Everton vs Newcastle: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Everton vs Newcastle: who is missing
Everton
- No reported absences
Newcastle
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Everton vs Newcastle: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
EvertonWWNewcastleWWEverton vs Newcastle: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Everton vs Newcastle: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Everton vs Newcastle?
Newcastle +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our probabilities: Everton to win 40%, a draw 27%, Newcastle to win 32%.
What time and where is kick-off?
29 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Referee: F. Hallam.
Who will be missing?
Everton: no absences. Newcastle: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.72); under 2.5 goals is at 43% (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 61% probability (odds 1.55).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.5%); after that come 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–0 (8.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.