EFL Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth are at home to Aston Villa on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with T. Harrington as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.93 |
| Market average | 2.33 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 1.57 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.37 | 39.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L (4:0), Aston Villa 1W 0D 0L (3:1).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: who is missing
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Attack and defence. Bournemouth have scored 4.0 and conceded 0.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Aston Villa average 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; Aston Villa: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Bournemouth 4–0, Aston Villa 3–1.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bournemouth are missing: no absences. Aston Villa are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWAston VillaWReturns calculator
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our result tip is Bournemouth or draw (1X) (odds 1.43), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Bournemouth or draw (1X).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our probabilities: Bournemouth to win 41%, a draw 26%, Aston Villa to win 33%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: T. Harrington.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.59); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.8%); after that come 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.